* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 94 95 96 99 101 109 111 121 129 133 130 126 117 114 106 V (KT) LAND 100 94 94 95 96 99 101 109 111 121 129 133 130 126 117 114 106 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 89 89 90 95 104 111 117 120 121 119 116 108 102 92 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 12 11 9 4 8 8 6 5 11 8 11 11 22 39 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 3 3 3 -2 0 2 0 1 6 -2 3 2 5 2 SHEAR DIR 237 248 245 247 255 296 293 303 286 298 291 299 269 245 236 214 213 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.3 26.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 165 165 166 170 169 167 164 164 156 155 154 141 116 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -49.4 -49.5 -48.6 -48.8 -47.5 -47.4 -47.1 -46.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 56 55 56 55 55 59 60 64 63 57 42 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 27 29 31 34 39 39 42 44 46 48 49 49 51 51 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 2 6 10 15 29 43 50 68 67 92 106 135 167 208 210 200 MB DIV 25 4 0 8 -19 26 0 37 7 68 27 74 77 69 43 37 25 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 3 7 11 11 11 13 -1 2 LAND (KM) 537 479 435 409 403 404 409 431 440 494 534 596 706 806 933 790 684 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.7 24.6 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.8 58.6 59.4 60.2 61.4 62.7 63.8 64.7 65.8 67.0 67.7 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 8 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 63 68 78 81 83 82 72 62 67 49 42 42 16 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -19. -22. -29. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 22. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 9. 11. 21. 29. 33. 30. 26. 17. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 57.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.6% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 3.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 14.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% 17.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/09/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 16( 34) 19( 47) 21( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 30( 50) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 94 94 95 96 99 101 109 111 121 129 133 130 126 117 114 106 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 101 104 106 114 116 126 134 138 135 131 122 119 111 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 98 101 103 111 113 123 131 135 132 128 119 116 108 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 94 96 104 106 116 124 128 125 121 112 109 101 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 86 94 96 106 114 118 115 111 102 99 91 IN 6HR 100 94 85 79 76 77 79 87 89 99 107 111 108 104 95 92 84 IN 12HR 100 94 94 85 79 75 77 85 87 97 105 109 106 102 93 90 82