* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 45 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 45 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 45 41 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 4 7 12 15 15 16 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 2 3 8 14 10 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 160 239 224 216 216 231 229 233 238 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.7 23.9 23.5 22.8 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 101 97 89 82 84 85 87 91 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 62 59 53 49 45 40 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 23 20 18 15 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 57 51 43 38 4 -4 -15 -13 -22 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 21 -4 0 3 3 -17 -18 -24 -12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 4 6 5 6 5 1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1186 1215 1254 1276 1303 1319 1350 1421 1518 1651 1815 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.5 24.7 24.5 24.1 23.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.1 126.0 126.6 127.2 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.7 132.1 133.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 4 4 4 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -28. -33. -35. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -29. -37. -47. -53. -58. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.2 124.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##