* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/09/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 102 105 106 109 111 116 118 124 128 125 123 118 109 107 84 V (KT) LAND 100 100 102 105 106 109 111 116 118 124 128 125 123 118 109 107 84 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 100 101 104 110 114 118 124 124 120 116 113 106 96 79 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 7 8 8 10 5 8 2 11 10 10 18 33 46 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 5 2 -1 0 0 1 4 4 3 2 0 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 249 244 245 256 293 282 291 311 278 301 286 284 268 242 217 216 219 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.7 27.7 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 169 166 166 168 166 167 166 163 161 162 161 147 133 123 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -48.8 -48.5 -48.1 -47.3 -47.0 -47.4 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 3 1 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 56 55 55 56 57 57 60 61 63 59 54 35 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 30 30 34 37 40 41 44 47 46 48 49 48 52 40 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 9 7 13 22 31 44 46 69 70 104 119 151 180 185 147 200 MB DIV 20 10 -15 -25 10 19 18 34 25 60 76 67 81 57 12 -5 24 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -4 -4 -2 1 1 2 2 6 12 11 4 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 491 461 451 445 444 449 470 483 545 588 581 651 798 944 883 734 622 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.2 25.1 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.5 59.3 60.0 60.6 61.9 63.0 64.1 65.2 66.3 67.1 67.6 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 9 11 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 70 74 76 76 80 73 62 62 61 47 48 23 9 3 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -21. -24. -31. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 22. 20. 21. 22. 19. 23. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 16. 18. 24. 28. 25. 23. 18. 9. 7. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.0 57.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 601.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.30 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.9% 10.0% 8.9% 7.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 5.2% 4.9% 4.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 3.2% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 36.0% 52.0% 38.0% 25.0% 9.0% 19.0% 9.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/09/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/09/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 27( 57) 28( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 13( 16) 7( 22) 13( 32) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 102 105 106 109 111 116 118 124 128 125 123 118 109 107 84 18HR AGO 100 99 101 104 105 108 110 115 117 123 127 124 122 117 108 106 83 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 100 103 105 110 112 118 122 119 117 112 103 101 78 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 94 96 101 103 109 113 110 108 103 94 92 69 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 86 91 93 99 103 100 98 93 84 82 59 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 82 84 89 91 97 101 98 96 91 82 80 57 IN 12HR 100 100 102 93 87 83 85 90 92 98 102 99 97 92 83 81 58