* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP112023 09/09/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 40 34 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 40 34 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 40 36 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 5 3 5 8 16 15 12 11 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 2 2 3 14 13 15 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 286 250 223 212 217 242 229 223 236 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.6 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 95 88 84 81 82 85 88 94 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 59 58 51 47 41 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 22 20 18 15 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 41 32 5 -8 -21 -22 -32 -28 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 2 0 6 10 6 -27 -18 -13 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 4 8 5 6 3 3 -2 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1246 1285 1287 1291 1307 1358 1445 1571 1749 1932 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.8 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.3 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.0 126.7 127.0 127.3 128.2 129.1 129.8 131.4 133.2 135.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 5 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -21. -24. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -21. -30. -40. -48. -54. -58. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.0 125.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/09/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##