* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/09/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 47 49 52 61 68 71 78 81 84 89 86 83 81 76 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 47 49 52 61 68 71 78 81 84 89 86 83 81 76 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 47 52 56 59 62 66 70 74 73 69 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 22 19 19 19 22 21 18 11 4 12 18 11 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 4 0 2 -1 2 -1 1 -1 0 -2 -5 -2 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 303 276 273 253 232 230 194 183 184 186 228 261 257 349 32 54 85 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 140 142 140 137 141 139 135 136 133 131 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 61 62 58 55 54 51 50 49 51 42 34 28 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 16 17 18 24 27 28 31 32 34 37 37 36 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 51 46 46 54 52 47 63 75 72 65 58 66 61 59 32 26 16 200 MB DIV 69 61 52 54 71 63 71 37 19 5 31 6 -16 -12 -39 -34 -20 700-850 TADV 7 4 4 5 5 6 8 4 8 5 8 3 -1 0 -3 -2 2 LAND (KM) 2221 2292 2277 2279 2283 2276 2268 2330 2158 1967 1799 1663 1568 1457 1352 1301 1292 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.3 25.8 27.5 29.3 31.1 32.7 33.9 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.1 39.9 40.1 40.4 41.0 41.6 41.7 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.8 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 5 4 6 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 36 29 36 26 17 21 19 18 9 10 9 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 14. 15. 20. 22. 23. 27. 24. 22. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 21. 28. 31. 38. 41. 44. 49. 46. 43. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 38.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.4% 8.3% 7.1% 4.6% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.1% 3.2% 2.7% 1.7% 3.4% 3.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 47 49 52 61 68 71 78 81 84 89 86 83 81 76 18HR AGO 40 39 40 44 46 49 58 65 68 75 78 81 86 83 80 78 73 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 45 54 61 64 71 74 77 82 79 76 74 69 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 44 51 54 61 64 67 72 69 66 64 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT