* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 102 108 113 120 126 123 126 122 124 124 115 104 97 93 78 V (KT) LAND 95 97 102 108 113 120 126 123 126 122 124 124 115 104 97 93 78 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 98 102 107 117 125 127 125 124 123 118 105 91 81 71 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 7 4 3 8 3 9 6 13 11 13 16 15 31 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 -4 -1 5 6 6 6 SHEAR DIR 245 244 255 316 278 271 321 281 280 297 280 275 258 236 220 221 244 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.6 28.6 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 167 167 168 166 168 165 163 162 164 161 146 133 124 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -48.7 -48.0 -47.6 -47.4 -47.7 -48.0 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 56 53 54 53 55 55 58 61 65 61 56 44 32 30 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 32 33 37 40 39 43 43 47 49 48 45 46 48 43 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 15 11 21 27 44 47 71 74 101 121 132 135 160 180 156 200 MB DIV 13 -9 2 19 10 38 44 22 50 59 105 101 98 79 31 60 27 700-850 TADV -9 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 2 0 8 10 11 9 6 11 3 7 LAND (KM) 421 416 414 425 452 470 494 544 563 594 671 787 953 884 730 643 478 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.4 25.4 26.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.1 60.8 61.5 62.2 63.4 64.6 65.7 66.6 67.3 67.9 68.1 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 70 75 77 76 77 79 68 61 63 58 42 45 21 8 4 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -18. -23. -30. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 13. 18. 18. 23. 26. 23. 17. 18. 20. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 18. 25. 31. 28. 31. 27. 29. 29. 20. 9. 2. -2. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.8 59.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 625.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 16.5% 11.7% 9.8% 8.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 8.9% 9.3% 6.1% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 3.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 44.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/10/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 24( 37) 30( 56) 33( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 7( 17) 35( 46) 38( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 97 102 108 113 120 126 123 126 122 124 124 115 104 97 93 78 18HR AGO 95 94 99 105 110 117 123 120 123 119 121 121 112 101 94 90 75 12HR AGO 95 92 91 97 102 109 115 112 115 111 113 113 104 93 86 82 67 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 90 97 103 100 103 99 101 101 92 81 74 70 55 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 83 89 86 89 85 87 87 78 67 60 56 41 IN 6HR 95 97 88 82 79 80 86 83 86 82 84 84 75 64 57 53 38 IN 12HR 95 97 102 93 87 83 89 86 89 85 87 87 78 67 60 56 41