* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 65 74 78 83 80 82 79 77 79 81 83 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 65 74 78 83 80 82 79 77 79 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 53 57 61 67 71 72 73 73 71 68 65 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 18 18 21 17 22 19 14 6 16 17 31 12 23 24 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 4 3 0 0 -1 1 1 -2 3 -2 0 5 10 6 SHEAR DIR 273 272 254 237 227 185 199 173 193 251 218 242 252 295 24 52 48 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 139 140 140 136 138 137 134 133 130 126 123 122 120 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 64 59 59 57 58 54 51 49 46 36 24 9 6 10 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 17 18 19 23 25 30 33 35 34 36 36 36 38 41 45 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 42 46 36 46 44 69 55 51 54 63 76 56 -27 -187 -185 200 MB DIV 70 51 58 73 66 71 65 27 14 6 27 27 -36 -13 -90 -55 -22 700-850 TADV 4 5 8 8 6 7 9 6 7 9 4 0 -6 -7 -12 -20 -37 LAND (KM) 2279 2318 2321 2333 2337 2340 2377 2245 2040 1863 1724 1633 1601 1514 1394 1324 1322 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.4 26.9 28.8 30.8 32.5 33.8 34.7 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.4 39.8 40.0 40.3 40.7 40.9 41.1 41.2 41.4 41.7 41.8 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 8 6 4 3 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 28 32 28 17 14 14 16 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 19. 23. 20. 23. 22. 21. 22. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 29. 33. 38. 35. 37. 34. 32. 34. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 39.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.0% 8.9% 7.6% 4.9% 9.2% 9.6% 10.8% Logistic: 1.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.3% 3.3% 2.8% 1.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 56 62 65 74 78 83 80 82 79 77 79 81 83 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 53 59 62 71 75 80 77 79 76 74 76 78 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 53 56 65 69 74 71 73 70 68 70 72 74 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 47 56 60 65 62 64 61 59 61 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT