* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 55 63 70 75 79 78 81 82 77 75 72 66 66 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 55 63 70 75 79 78 81 82 77 75 72 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 50 52 58 63 68 69 68 71 72 68 65 61 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 22 21 22 21 17 10 10 11 16 14 3 10 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 3 3 -2 1 -3 4 7 0 0 1 -7 3 7 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 256 232 230 228 197 183 167 201 193 241 225 271 287 349 61 83 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 140 140 139 138 138 135 136 130 125 124 119 118 120 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 60 57 58 55 54 52 52 44 38 35 40 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 26 31 33 35 34 37 39 37 37 35 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 42 33 28 42 53 54 42 44 40 53 65 52 24 0 -37 200 MB DIV 44 68 99 60 66 58 27 42 15 17 22 28 -13 -18 -71 -7 -29 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 8 8 8 7 4 7 6 4 1 1 -2 -4 -1 6 LAND (KM) 2320 2324 2330 2343 2344 2355 2351 2155 1961 1800 1687 1627 1621 1629 1666 1787 2021 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.9 24.6 26.1 27.8 29.7 31.6 33.2 34.5 35.5 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.8 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.3 41.1 40.5 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 6 4 3 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 32 29 21 16 16 14 11 9 6 4 4 2 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 21. 25. 27. 23. 21. 19. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 33. 36. 37. 32. 30. 27. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.8 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.2% 8.3% 7.1% 4.3% 8.4% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 2.9% 3.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 21.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 12.0% 13.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 55 63 70 75 79 78 81 82 77 75 72 66 66 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 52 60 67 72 76 75 78 79 74 72 69 63 63 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 47 55 62 67 71 70 73 74 69 67 64 58 58 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 47 54 59 63 62 65 66 61 59 56 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT