* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 43 50 57 61 63 64 64 62 61 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 43 50 57 61 63 64 64 62 61 59 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 59 64 66 66 64 62 61 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 9 11 13 9 13 13 15 23 27 28 32 34 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 1 -2 2 -1 -9 -6 -2 8 SHEAR DIR 47 43 51 46 61 98 134 155 161 150 151 148 131 109 87 63 37 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 29.2 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 155 149 154 154 155 150 147 143 155 165 170 169 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 64 65 65 68 66 68 63 64 58 57 52 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -12 -11 -8 -11 -3 -3 5 19 9 16 18 39 64 85 94 72 200 MB DIV 6 10 2 -8 -11 -1 8 2 26 19 45 63 54 52 53 97 128 700-850 TADV 0 -4 0 0 1 2 4 3 5 4 6 5 4 2 -1 -2 7 LAND (KM) 1025 1142 1259 1373 1469 1646 1806 1956 1866 1697 1508 1306 1085 868 703 644 776 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.0 13.3 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.0 29.1 30.2 31.1 32.8 34.3 36.0 37.7 39.7 41.8 43.8 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 7 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 25 22 21 30 38 34 45 33 34 29 40 47 58 60 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 30. 38. 45. 50. 54. 57. 58. 60. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. 31. 29. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 26.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 15.8% 10.4% 8.1% 5.5% 10.6% 13.8% 30.6% Logistic: 8.1% 18.7% 15.6% 5.5% 1.7% 8.9% 10.5% 22.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% 4.1% 1.6% 25.7% Consensus: 4.2% 12.5% 9.7% 4.6% 2.4% 7.9% 8.6% 26.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/10/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 43 50 57 61 63 64 64 62 61 59 55 53 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 40 47 54 58 60 61 61 59 58 56 52 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 50 54 56 57 57 55 54 52 48 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 42 46 48 49 49 47 46 44 40 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT