* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/10/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 104 107 111 117 121 121 120 121 115 113 99 93 86 76 60 V (KT) LAND 95 98 104 107 111 117 121 121 120 121 115 113 99 93 86 76 60 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 101 105 109 116 120 120 117 115 111 104 91 77 69 56 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 4 11 6 10 10 12 17 20 33 40 36 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 0 -3 0 4 9 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 242 233 225 237 248 306 263 259 280 277 265 255 233 205 206 203 205 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.1 27.1 26.5 26.5 26.4 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 164 162 164 162 156 151 157 154 138 126 119 120 119 83 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -48.7 -48.2 -47.6 -47.4 -46.8 -46.6 -46.4 -46.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.3 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 53 52 54 55 58 62 63 59 58 50 38 31 28 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 34 35 38 41 42 44 47 46 49 45 46 47 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 21 25 27 41 45 63 66 88 108 120 135 156 181 168 161 200 MB DIV 33 25 28 3 41 34 18 59 67 91 116 106 115 92 80 23 44 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 2 1 11 15 10 14 12 1 7 -4 1 LAND (KM) 424 436 462 466 481 517 566 597 644 724 812 991 865 783 689 494 248 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.9 25.9 27.1 29.0 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.5 62.2 62.8 63.4 64.6 65.7 66.5 67.3 67.9 68.1 68.0 67.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 12 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 84 80 81 79 75 63 60 60 47 40 39 21 5 1 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -25. -31. -37. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 15. 19. 18. 22. 14. 15. 14. 10. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 12. 16. 22. 26. 26. 25. 26. 20. 18. 4. -2. -9. -19. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 21.5 60.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 657.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 17.3% 12.4% 10.0% 8.3% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 12.7% 12.5% 8.0% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 11.6% 9.7% 6.4% 4.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 22.0% 66.0% 53.0% 28.0% 6.0% 32.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/10/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 26( 39) 29( 56) 32( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 9( 12) 13( 23) 43( 56) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 98 104 107 111 117 121 121 120 121 115 113 99 93 86 76 60 18HR AGO 95 94 100 103 107 113 117 117 116 117 111 109 95 89 82 72 56 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 98 104 108 108 107 108 102 100 86 80 73 63 47 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 89 95 99 99 98 99 93 91 77 71 64 54 38 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 82 86 86 85 86 80 78 64 58 51 41 25 IN 6HR 95 98 89 83 80 80 84 84 83 84 78 76 62 56 49 39 23 IN 12HR 95 98 104 95 89 85 89 89 88 89 83 81 67 61 54 44 28