* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/10/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 36 45 54 63 71 76 79 83 88 89 91 94 98 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 36 45 54 63 71 76 79 83 88 89 91 94 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 54 64 74 82 86 88 89 89 93 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 9 9 8 6 2 5 14 13 13 19 19 20 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -3 3 9 3 0 -3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 51 55 52 73 82 86 130 175 117 137 165 130 121 92 78 42 11 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 155 155 156 154 156 155 153 152 150 152 153 157 156 159 157 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 64 63 64 64 67 68 66 62 60 56 55 51 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 11 14 15 17 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -14 -15 -15 -13 7 -1 17 20 24 36 35 50 73 86 84 56 200 MB DIV 12 -1 -2 -12 -11 1 14 35 12 46 66 80 65 49 66 43 79 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 1 -1 0 1 2 7 6 LAND (KM) 1083 1188 1293 1398 1494 1665 1857 1975 1809 1647 1470 1302 1094 885 722 676 783 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.4 33.0 34.8 36.6 38.6 40.7 42.9 45.0 46.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 5 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 23 20 22 34 35 37 46 36 39 61 54 51 46 52 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 30. 37. 44. 49. 53. 56. 56. 58. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 8. 11. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 46. 49. 53. 58. 59. 61. 64. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 27.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/10/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.5% 10.2% 8.0% 5.6% 10.8% 14.0% 34.2% Logistic: 2.5% 5.8% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 3.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% Consensus: 1.8% 7.6% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 4.5% 5.7% 14.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/10/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 36 45 54 63 71 76 79 83 88 89 91 94 98 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 35 44 53 62 70 75 78 82 87 88 90 93 97 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 39 48 57 65 70 73 77 82 83 85 88 92 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 41 50 58 63 66 70 75 76 78 81 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT