* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 114 119 122 123 121 125 120 117 110 105 96 90 77 60 47 V (KT) LAND 105 111 114 119 122 123 121 125 120 117 110 105 96 90 77 60 47 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 117 120 122 123 123 119 115 111 108 99 88 75 61 47 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 7 7 11 9 12 6 16 14 17 26 30 30 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 -7 0 0 10 8 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 226 221 240 254 271 258 269 272 295 260 267 240 201 193 166 180 199 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.6 28.0 26.7 26.1 27.7 23.1 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 166 162 162 162 158 152 153 156 145 137 122 116 134 94 78 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -49.8 -49.6 -49.0 -49.4 -48.0 -48.6 -47.2 -47.3 -46.7 -46.5 -46.9 -47.3 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 52 53 53 57 58 63 61 60 54 46 40 42 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 34 38 39 41 41 45 45 47 47 49 48 49 44 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR 14 25 28 29 35 39 58 60 85 100 135 141 173 191 176 151 133 200 MB DIV 46 36 18 40 53 7 58 65 83 84 107 84 70 52 84 58 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 1 10 13 12 11 11 5 14 1 -3 8 LAND (KM) 434 458 474 486 508 542 617 613 669 789 931 948 848 803 577 368 169 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.4 25.2 26.5 28.3 30.3 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.4 62.0 62.6 63.2 63.8 65.0 66.0 66.8 67.4 67.7 67.9 67.8 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 8 9 11 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 81 81 79 76 70 61 58 58 45 44 28 17 1 0 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -18. -24. -29. -32. -38. -44. -51. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 17. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 13. 13. 15. 15. 16. 13. 14. 7. -5. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 20. 15. 12. 5. 0. -9. -15. -28. -45. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.9 61.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.13 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 741.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.16 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 27.1% 21.5% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 24.7% 24.8% 17.1% 5.6% 5.7% 2.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 24.2% 15.0% 16.5% 5.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 24.5% 22.2% 20.9% 11.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 51.0% 50.0% 40.0% 22.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/10/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/10/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 30( 49) 34( 66) 35( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 19( 30) 50( 65) 49( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 111 114 119 122 123 121 125 120 117 110 105 96 90 77 60 47 18HR AGO 105 104 107 112 115 116 114 118 113 110 103 98 89 83 70 53 40 12HR AGO 105 102 101 106 109 110 108 112 107 104 97 92 83 77 64 47 34 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 98 99 97 101 96 93 86 81 72 66 53 36 23 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 87 85 89 84 81 74 69 60 54 41 24 DIS IN 6HR 105 111 102 96 93 93 91 95 90 87 80 75 66 60 47 30 17 IN 12HR 105 111 114 105 99 95 93 97 92 89 82 77 68 62 49 32 19