* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 42 50 56 59 60 61 61 60 56 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 42 50 56 59 60 61 61 60 56 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 36 40 44 47 48 47 46 45 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 7 7 8 11 9 11 18 21 26 28 30 33 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 3 4 11 0 0 -6 2 10 2 SHEAR DIR 80 60 68 86 108 146 168 183 164 171 171 143 127 97 69 47 23 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 154 154 156 155 155 152 155 147 153 156 160 161 158 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 64 63 64 66 65 70 69 68 62 62 57 57 59 64 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -12 -9 -2 -1 7 21 16 26 44 57 67 79 65 33 8 200 MB DIV 0 -6 -17 -22 -28 11 5 28 39 61 56 61 68 51 45 55 76 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 4 3 3 2 4 6 4 0 0 0 13 16 LAND (KM) 1187 1303 1408 1504 1589 1772 1969 1871 1718 1566 1413 1228 1051 921 914 1061 1260 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.6 13.9 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.3 34.0 35.9 37.8 39.8 41.9 43.9 45.7 46.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 20 22 27 39 33 49 35 44 42 63 54 53 53 50 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 23. 31. 39. 46. 52. 56. 59. 60. 61. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -21. -25. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 9. 17. 25. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 35. 31. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 28.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.3% 8.7% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.4% 4.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.3% 5.9% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.6% Consensus: 1.3% 6.8% 4.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9% 6.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/10/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 27 34 42 50 56 59 60 61 61 60 56 53 52 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 34 42 50 56 59 60 61 61 60 56 53 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 31 39 47 53 56 57 58 58 57 53 50 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 40 46 49 50 51 51 50 46 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT