* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 71 77 81 82 81 81 77 71 63 53 47 45 45 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 71 77 81 82 81 81 77 71 63 53 47 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 65 69 74 76 75 75 76 76 71 63 55 51 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 18 23 16 11 6 7 13 17 17 11 21 20 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 0 3 0 3 1 -2 -1 -1 3 0 3 0 -1 8 5 SHEAR DIR 221 220 205 196 194 166 131 27 288 227 247 271 309 54 95 159 184 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 136 135 137 137 135 131 127 123 121 120 119 114 111 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.3 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 55 61 59 54 54 55 52 46 44 44 45 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 25 27 32 34 35 35 36 37 37 34 30 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 33 37 39 50 35 32 22 20 28 17 -6 -17 -40 -55 -33 200 MB DIV 59 62 55 69 66 27 33 23 12 45 12 -7 -46 -50 -26 11 27 700-850 TADV 8 11 10 10 9 7 3 4 3 5 7 5 1 1 -1 3 -13 LAND (KM) 2377 2386 2405 2427 2395 2194 1964 1767 1653 1557 1493 1455 1447 1424 1412 1414 1432 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.8 27.7 29.7 31.9 33.7 34.7 35.8 36.7 37.2 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.0 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.5 41.0 41.4 41.3 41.0 40.9 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 7 6 5 4 1 1 3 2 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 15 13 12 11 11 9 7 5 4 4 5 4 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 17. 18. 16. 11. 4. -1. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 26. 27. 26. 26. 22. 16. 8. -2. -8. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.3 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.4% 11.9% 9.0% 6.3% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.9% 5.3% 3.3% 2.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 21.0% 12.0% 8.0% 2.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 66 71 77 81 82 81 81 77 71 63 53 47 45 45 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 67 73 77 78 77 77 73 67 59 49 43 41 41 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 60 66 70 71 70 70 66 60 52 42 36 34 34 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 56 60 61 60 60 56 50 42 32 26 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT