* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 59 66 74 79 87 92 101 104 102 103 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 59 66 74 79 87 92 101 104 102 103 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 30 35 42 52 65 77 84 89 96 100 100 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 7 2 1 8 12 15 17 22 20 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 -3 1 7 0 -1 -4 2 12 7 SHEAR DIR 72 65 53 76 88 114 135 130 140 167 168 157 133 107 70 21 5 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 154 154 156 155 153 150 153 141 145 151 159 165 167 159 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 64 63 66 72 74 73 66 62 54 51 45 46 51 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 11 13 16 19 26 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -8 -1 2 1 18 20 27 32 28 44 74 114 126 92 44 200 MB DIV -7 -19 -15 -18 7 6 40 33 54 44 56 56 62 57 50 124 71 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 3 0 3 -1 0 0 5 13 LAND (KM) 1273 1379 1484 1569 1655 1847 1977 1839 1710 1595 1477 1345 1150 904 716 597 784 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.1 32.9 34.7 36.5 38.5 40.5 42.6 44.7 46.9 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 13 9 4 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 22 25 33 36 36 51 33 50 40 35 62 63 45 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 23. 31. 39. 46. 50. 55. 57. 58. 60. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 2. 4. 9. 12. 20. 23. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 5. 14. 23. 34. 41. 49. 54. 62. 67. 76. 79. 77. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 29.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 15.7% 10.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.2% 4.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 4.7% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% Consensus: 1.3% 7.6% 5.1% 2.5% 0.1% 1.0% 6.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/11/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 59 66 74 79 87 92 101 104 102 103 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 59 66 74 79 87 92 101 104 102 103 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 35 44 55 62 70 75 83 88 97 100 98 99 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 36 47 54 62 67 75 80 89 92 90 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT