* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/11/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 110 114 113 112 114 115 116 111 106 99 95 77 58 44 34 V (KT) LAND 105 107 110 114 113 112 114 115 116 111 106 99 95 77 58 44 35 V (KT) LGEM 105 106 108 111 113 115 114 114 113 105 97 87 73 53 36 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 6 11 10 11 7 12 14 22 31 38 38 25 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 1 -1 -1 3 3 -1 -2 1 13 6 3 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 205 213 216 251 262 270 274 279 251 239 234 199 191 169 175 191 214 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.0 27.4 26.0 27.0 23.3 18.8 18.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 162 162 162 158 151 157 154 137 130 115 126 94 76 75 77 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.2 -49.4 -48.4 -48.8 -47.3 -47.5 -46.4 -46.4 -46.7 -47.1 -48.1 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 55 55 58 59 65 65 63 58 47 44 49 56 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 40 39 41 45 48 49 48 49 49 52 44 34 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 42 46 45 59 62 87 93 127 133 158 166 144 140 133 130 200 MB DIV 60 58 51 40 1 43 66 102 113 149 112 68 27 85 66 61 53 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 2 8 16 23 10 13 8 23 0 -8 7 4 LAND (KM) 496 505 523 544 573 642 672 745 855 1020 889 806 600 400 173 6 28 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.1 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.9 27.3 29.2 31.4 34.1 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.1 64.8 65.7 66.6 67.3 67.7 67.8 67.6 67.1 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 9 10 13 14 14 13 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 75 76 70 64 59 56 52 48 40 19 7 0 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -14. -20. -27. -34. -39. -46. -52. -57. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 13. 15. 17. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 13. 13. 14. 15. 3. -12. -24. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 8. 7. 9. 10. 11. 6. 1. -6. -10. -28. -47. -61. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.8 62.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 712.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 15.9% 11.5% 9.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 8.9% 7.5% 4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 8.5% 7.0% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 14.0% 22.0% 16.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/11/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 29( 48) 30( 64) 30( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 42( 52) 52( 77) 55( 90) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 107 110 114 113 112 114 115 116 111 106 99 95 77 58 44 35 18HR AGO 105 104 107 111 110 109 111 112 113 108 103 96 92 74 55 41 32 12HR AGO 105 102 101 105 104 103 105 106 107 102 97 90 86 68 49 35 26 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 93 95 96 97 92 87 80 76 58 39 25 16 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 87 88 89 84 79 72 68 50 31 17 DIS IN 6HR 105 107 98 92 89 85 87 88 89 84 79 72 68 50 31 17 DIS IN 12HR 105 107 110 101 95 91 93 94 95 90 85 78 74 56 37 23 DIS