* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/11/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 59 63 67 73 77 79 78 78 74 71 62 52 44 40 43 V (KT) LAND 55 56 59 63 67 73 77 79 78 78 74 71 62 52 44 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 59 62 67 71 72 72 73 72 68 60 52 46 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 19 18 15 6 11 7 12 14 12 21 19 15 7 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 0 0 4 0 -5 0 6 1 5 1 6 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 215 203 197 194 193 133 97 350 248 226 260 279 23 52 70 171 210 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 135 136 137 136 134 129 127 124 119 121 119 116 112 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 58 59 58 54 58 56 53 41 37 34 39 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 28 30 33 35 36 36 38 38 38 35 31 27 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 34 38 49 50 38 27 25 28 41 30 13 -3 -28 -34 -28 200 MB DIV 58 51 76 79 36 45 19 10 11 54 -17 -19 -58 -33 -15 9 24 700-850 TADV 8 9 10 11 9 8 6 4 5 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2389 2393 2404 2415 2318 2110 1887 1714 1624 1548 1504 1467 1449 1418 1390 1365 1359 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.6 28.5 30.5 32.5 34.0 34.9 35.9 36.7 37.2 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.1 40.1 40.3 40.9 41.5 41.6 41.3 40.8 40.7 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 5 4 1 2 1 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 16. 16. 16. 10. 3. -4. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 22. 24. 23. 23. 19. 16. 7. -3. -11. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.9 40.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.2% 10.9% 7.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.9% 4.6% 2.6% 0.1% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 21.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 59 63 67 73 77 79 78 78 74 71 62 52 44 40 43 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 65 71 75 77 76 76 72 69 60 50 42 38 41 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 65 69 71 70 70 66 63 54 44 36 32 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 55 59 61 60 60 56 53 44 34 26 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT