* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 110 113 116 117 114 117 115 108 98 97 87 68 50 37 29 V (KT) LAND 105 107 110 113 116 117 114 117 115 108 98 97 87 68 50 38 28 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 109 112 113 114 115 114 110 100 89 80 64 42 29 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 6 8 12 5 6 9 15 22 24 45 46 40 28 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 -4 0 9 9 12 -3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 219 208 204 255 257 260 255 255 234 228 213 194 182 171 179 190 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.7 27.9 26.9 26.6 25.2 18.8 16.8 19.8 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 160 158 155 156 156 147 136 124 121 108 76 72 80 72 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -49.1 -48.7 -48.4 -48.1 -47.4 -47.2 -46.5 -46.3 -46.6 -47.5 -47.4 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 54 54 57 62 65 62 62 51 39 43 53 58 62 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 40 41 44 45 45 49 50 48 47 52 50 40 30 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 48 48 55 67 75 97 113 131 159 164 148 126 137 120 67 200 MB DIV 81 63 41 -11 9 44 53 101 111 158 135 69 83 72 90 41 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 6 16 17 13 9 19 15 1 0 -4 8 LAND (KM) 518 540 572 599 631 672 706 815 948 897 772 656 370 231 3 19 0 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.9 28.6 30.7 33.3 36.1 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.9 64.6 65.1 65.7 66.6 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.1 67.8 67.5 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 8 10 11 14 15 14 12 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 72 66 58 56 56 52 44 44 29 14 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -21. -29. -37. -42. -49. -55. -58. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 13. 16. 19. 24. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 14. 14. 12. 9. 16. 12. -3. -19. -30. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 9. 12. 10. 3. -7. -8. -18. -37. -55. -68. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.3 63.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 759.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 14.8% 10.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 11.2% 9.8% 6.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 8.9% 7.3% 4.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 13.0% 23.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/11/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 29( 48) 31( 64) 32( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 45( 55) 22( 65) 36( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 107 110 113 116 117 114 117 115 108 98 97 87 68 50 38 28 18HR AGO 105 104 107 110 113 114 111 114 112 105 95 94 84 65 47 35 25 12HR AGO 105 102 101 104 107 108 105 108 106 99 89 88 78 59 41 29 19 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 98 99 96 99 97 90 80 79 69 50 32 20 DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 87 84 87 85 78 68 67 57 38 20 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 107 98 92 89 91 88 91 89 82 72 71 61 42 24 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 107 110 101 95 91 88 91 89 82 72 71 61 42 24 DIS DIS