* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 109 112 111 110 107 107 105 96 93 89 73 55 44 35 29 V (KT) LAND 105 107 109 112 111 110 107 107 105 96 93 89 73 55 43 35 28 V (KT) LGEM 105 106 108 109 109 108 108 107 103 94 86 73 52 34 27 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 14 9 9 8 14 14 23 35 44 41 29 24 21 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 2 7 3 -5 1 5 11 9 0 -2 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 207 215 253 247 251 265 276 242 236 226 201 199 181 187 197 225 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.3 27.1 26.5 27.6 21.8 17.1 16.5 17.6 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 160 156 155 155 155 141 126 120 133 87 72 72 75 69 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.6 -49.8 -49.4 -48.7 -49.3 -48.0 -48.3 -47.3 -47.3 -46.2 -45.8 -46.4 -47.6 -47.8 -48.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 55 58 66 62 62 55 42 35 41 51 55 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 41 44 43 45 46 47 49 46 50 51 44 34 27 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 48 56 70 63 92 100 129 146 171 203 161 157 139 90 -13 200 MB DIV 67 70 11 17 44 64 100 118 138 132 93 53 78 53 41 26 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 3 3 8 11 16 17 12 6 13 9 4 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 529 561 597 628 655 687 769 880 968 841 773 552 279 104 13 54 -88 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.5 25.2 26.2 27.8 29.7 31.8 34.3 37.2 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.5 65.0 65.6 66.1 67.0 67.5 68.0 68.1 67.9 67.4 67.2 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 9 10 12 14 15 15 11 13 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 66 60 55 55 55 50 45 37 24 6 2 26 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -15. -22. -31. -40. -45. -52. -56. -59. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 14. 17. 20. 25. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 5. 10. 11. -1. -16. -28. -35. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. 0. -9. -12. -16. -32. -50. -61. -70. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.5 63.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 748.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 15.1% 11.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 11.4% 9.3% 5.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.7% 1.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 9.2% 7.2% 4.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 14.0% 20.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 29( 63) 29( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 37 50( 69) 35( 80) 41( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 107 109 112 111 110 107 107 105 96 93 89 73 55 43 35 28 18HR AGO 105 104 106 109 108 107 104 104 102 93 90 86 70 52 40 32 25 12HR AGO 105 102 101 104 103 102 99 99 97 88 85 81 65 47 35 27 20 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 93 90 90 88 79 76 72 56 38 26 18 DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 82 82 80 71 68 64 48 30 18 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 107 98 92 89 87 84 84 82 73 70 66 50 32 20 DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 107 109 100 94 90 87 87 85 76 73 69 53 35 23 15 DIS