* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 76 81 86 93 95 94 91 80 71 55 45 38 37 36 37 V (KT) LAND 65 69 76 81 86 93 95 94 91 80 71 55 45 38 37 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 74 78 81 86 89 89 86 79 70 60 52 48 47 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 16 10 5 3 7 16 13 13 15 24 25 22 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -2 1 -1 -1 0 2 1 3 2 0 -1 9 1 14 SHEAR DIR 205 198 186 178 189 347 320 215 243 279 282 31 75 109 162 204 236 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 137 141 134 128 122 117 115 115 116 117 120 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -52.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 58 58 58 56 61 59 58 53 54 52 54 48 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 33 34 36 37 38 38 41 38 38 32 30 27 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 46 52 43 26 15 13 27 38 9 -13 -31 -39 -42 13 39 200 MB DIV 69 70 53 29 32 23 10 27 49 -3 -12 -41 -25 -39 25 7 23 700-850 TADV 18 15 10 8 13 5 6 6 12 7 6 -1 0 -3 -2 -8 4 LAND (KM) 2383 2400 2311 2205 2099 1863 1695 1591 1506 1481 1481 1489 1475 1496 1499 1349 1025 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 32.8 34.2 35.2 36.3 36.9 37.1 37.0 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.8 41.5 41.7 41.4 40.9 40.6 40.6 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 9 6 6 4 2 1 1 2 1 3 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 12 11 14 12 9 8 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -31. -35. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 12. 11. 1. -4. -8. -8. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 16. 21. 28. 30. 29. 26. 15. 6. -10. -20. -27. -28. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.5 39.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.5% 15.7% 8.7% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 9.2% 6.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 11.0% 7.5% 3.4% 0.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 31.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 10( 16) 14( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 76 81 86 93 95 94 91 80 71 55 45 38 37 36 37 18HR AGO 65 64 71 76 81 88 90 89 86 75 66 50 40 33 32 31 32 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 71 78 80 79 76 65 56 40 30 23 22 21 22 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 67 69 68 65 54 45 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT