* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 60 67 68 64 62 59 56 53 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 60 67 68 64 62 59 56 53 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 49 58 64 66 62 56 52 49 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 9 8 9 13 13 16 22 27 26 32 27 32 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -7 -4 -6 -7 -3 3 -1 3 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 84 77 74 72 78 66 78 101 81 61 63 47 29 16 4 348 324 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 153 153 154 152 151 153 153 152 151 154 152 151 163 167 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 68 75 77 78 75 73 73 73 76 72 65 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 13 14 12 20 24 39 39 48 46 17 10 12 2 -2 -13 200 MB DIV -6 -8 -9 5 6 21 32 71 67 96 119 101 50 54 40 29 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -12 -27 LAND (KM) 1580 1680 1755 1802 1768 1708 1642 1555 1418 1314 1302 1369 1469 1556 1578 1378 1100 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.1 10.5 10.0 10.3 11.4 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.9 33.6 34.2 34.8 36.0 37.4 38.8 40.1 40.9 41.2 41.2 41.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 7 7 7 6 3 4 8 13 14 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 26 28 29 31 27 25 31 32 31 30 37 50 43 57 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 51. 57. 62. 64. 63. 63. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -8. -17. -23. -30. -33. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 35. 42. 43. 39. 37. 34. 31. 28. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 32.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 15.6% 10.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 21.4% 14.2% 4.0% 1.8% 11.1% 17.9% 43.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 48.4% Consensus: 2.6% 14.8% 8.7% 3.6% 0.7% 4.3% 11.0% 30.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 60 67 68 64 62 59 56 53 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 49 58 65 66 62 60 57 54 51 49 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 44 53 60 61 57 55 52 49 46 44 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 36 45 52 53 49 47 44 41 38 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT