* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 46 51 55 60 66 70 74 75 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 46 51 55 60 66 70 74 75 77 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 31 34 40 47 54 60 67 74 81 88 93 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 18 13 10 10 5 4 2 6 4 4 2 5 10 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 6 3 2 1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 38 41 42 49 40 47 25 333 292 311 345 329 203 215 195 358 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 144 146 152 149 158 159 154 154 154 151 152 155 153 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 71 74 76 77 78 77 77 72 68 64 58 61 61 62 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 15 20 19 15 21 30 39 37 48 34 41 40 44 47 45 200 MB DIV 15 35 14 -5 1 -5 19 55 96 107 127 50 74 95 40 51 57 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -6 -3 -1 -2 -6 -4 -15 -13 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 480 550 615 690 773 955 1154 1391 1649 1962 1895 1747 1545 1267 975 663 429 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.3 17.4 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.9 25.7 27.8 30.2 32.8 35.8 39.1 42.5 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 10 11 14 15 17 17 17 17 16 16 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 12 13 18 22 29 30 35 46 42 39 43 59 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 58. 60. 58. 59. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 26. 30. 35. 41. 45. 49. 50. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 21.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 14.9% 10.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 10.5% 4.6% 1.1% 0.6% 4.1% 7.5% 29.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 7.4% Consensus: 1.9% 12.0% 5.4% 2.5% 0.2% 1.7% 6.4% 12.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 46 51 55 60 66 70 74 75 77 81 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 32 37 44 49 53 58 64 68 72 73 75 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 33 40 45 49 54 60 64 68 69 71 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 32 37 41 46 52 56 60 61 63 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT