* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 104 107 109 108 110 107 101 91 86 75 58 46 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 100 101 104 107 109 108 110 107 101 91 86 75 58 46 37 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 100 102 104 108 110 106 96 84 72 55 36 28 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 7 7 12 8 14 21 33 50 41 28 26 36 64 87 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 4 3 3 4 -1 -4 7 11 13 9 -1 3 4 -2 -15 SHEAR DIR 214 250 233 244 252 237 228 239 199 198 195 183 194 208 252 266 271 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.4 27.3 26.5 27.2 24.1 18.8 16.7 16.7 13.3 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 156 155 157 156 142 128 120 128 100 77 73 73 66 64 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.1 -49.4 -48.8 -48.7 -48.2 -47.3 -47.2 -46.9 -46.7 -47.6 -48.0 -50.3 -52.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.6 1.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 59 59 62 64 61 54 41 27 32 41 51 56 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 41 41 44 46 49 48 48 46 48 45 35 28 23 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 56 67 69 74 100 114 137 170 190 180 130 124 67 0 -98 200 MB DIV 76 35 31 52 42 43 113 128 128 64 47 51 31 52 -18 -15 -41 700-850 TADV -2 3 3 7 5 12 13 12 4 -2 13 15 0 -3 14 9 -6 LAND (KM) 561 593 631 670 686 735 863 1011 867 779 593 353 197 17 54 0 -61 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.8 27.4 29.3 31.5 34.1 36.9 39.6 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.1 65.7 66.1 66.5 67.3 67.7 67.9 67.8 67.4 66.9 66.8 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 7 9 10 12 14 14 13 14 17 15 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 60 56 56 53 51 46 41 25 8 2 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -14. -21. -30. -38. -44. -51. -53. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 29. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 5. 7. 1. -14. -26. -33. -38. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 8. 10. 7. 1. -9. -14. -25. -42. -54. -62. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.8 64.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 636.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.4% 10.4% 8.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 7.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.7% 5.4% 3.9% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 19.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 28( 58) 28( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 31( 50) 40( 70) 18( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 104 107 109 108 110 107 101 91 86 75 58 46 37 36 30 18HR AGO 100 99 102 105 107 106 108 105 99 89 84 73 56 44 35 34 28 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 101 100 102 99 93 83 78 67 50 38 29 28 22 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 91 93 90 84 74 69 58 41 29 20 19 DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 82 79 73 63 58 47 30 18 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 84 81 75 65 60 49 32 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 104 95 89 85 87 84 78 68 63 52 35 23 DIS DIS DIS