* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 81 85 90 91 93 86 79 64 50 40 34 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 81 85 90 91 93 86 79 64 50 40 34 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 80 82 86 88 88 84 75 64 55 50 47 45 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 10 4 1 7 13 18 11 16 24 26 24 17 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -5 1 1 2 0 -3 0 2 5 4 7 3 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 190 182 189 190 211 323 250 246 273 280 357 56 117 157 190 222 256 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.7 25.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 138 139 131 124 120 116 113 116 119 119 119 112 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -52.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 58 59 58 58 62 61 59 53 53 52 58 53 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 32 34 35 35 37 37 41 39 39 34 30 27 26 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 31 49 53 42 37 28 23 27 42 21 -4 -24 -61 -75 -120 -123 26 200 MB DIV 79 52 30 30 28 12 10 47 -21 0 -51 -38 -28 0 -24 23 12 700-850 TADV 14 5 9 13 10 12 8 6 10 8 0 3 -4 1 -3 -13 0 LAND (KM) 2389 2323 2212 2100 1988 1781 1634 1560 1508 1472 1458 1449 1426 1410 1364 1252 1073 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.8 31.8 33.5 34.8 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.3 37.2 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.7 39.8 39.8 40.0 40.2 41.1 41.6 41.4 41.2 40.9 40.7 41.0 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 0 3 3 2 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 14 14 12 8 5 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -41. -43. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 11. 10. 2. -6. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 21. 23. 16. 9. -6. -20. -30. -36. -38. -38. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.5 39.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.7% 12.5% 8.2% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.4% 5.8% 3.0% 0.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 10( 19) 12( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 81 85 90 91 93 86 79 64 50 40 34 32 32 34 18HR AGO 70 69 72 76 80 85 86 88 81 74 59 45 35 29 27 27 29 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 74 79 80 82 75 68 53 39 29 23 21 21 23 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 69 70 72 65 58 43 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT