* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 46 51 57 62 68 71 74 75 78 83 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 46 51 57 62 68 71 74 75 78 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 44 50 58 67 76 84 90 94 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 10 10 10 6 3 5 3 1 3 3 7 4 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 0 3 6 3 0 0 -2 -2 1 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 37 39 49 56 52 42 43 338 320 288 326 313 106 197 161 244 325 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 148 152 149 156 159 156 156 154 151 153 154 150 158 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 74 75 76 76 76 75 74 70 67 63 60 62 60 62 62 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 25 19 19 23 39 54 57 61 68 67 77 73 87 80 91 200 MB DIV 33 4 6 -10 -21 -2 66 100 106 123 149 96 123 29 48 24 7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -6 -4 0 -3 3 0 -10 -3 -5 2 LAND (KM) 581 656 733 817 908 1134 1377 1648 1955 1873 1726 1565 1271 962 621 366 281 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.2 13.0 14.3 15.7 16.9 18.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.4 27.6 30.0 32.7 35.7 38.8 42.2 45.7 49.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 11 13 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 11 13 18 21 25 30 45 46 41 39 44 55 64 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 15. 25. 34. 42. 49. 54. 57. 59. 58. 58. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 21. 26. 32. 37. 43. 46. 49. 50. 53. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 22.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.2% 10.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.3% 4.9% 1.4% 0.9% 4.3% 5.8% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 11.7% Consensus: 1.7% 10.2% 5.3% 2.7% 0.3% 1.6% 5.8% 12.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 46 51 57 62 68 71 74 75 78 83 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 38 45 50 56 61 67 70 73 74 77 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 34 41 46 52 57 63 66 69 70 73 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 33 38 44 49 55 58 61 62 65 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT