* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 104 107 107 106 108 104 99 93 89 70 52 38 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 100 101 104 107 107 106 108 104 99 93 89 70 47 39 32 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 102 103 104 106 107 102 95 85 71 47 31 28 29 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 6 12 8 17 10 23 42 46 41 27 24 34 45 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 3 4 3 -6 4 6 12 10 2 -3 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 249 257 262 263 230 236 226 212 201 196 183 201 223 266 270 266 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.0 26.5 25.1 19.1 15.7 19.2 13.1 11.3 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 155 155 156 153 141 126 121 108 77 71 80 69 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.5 -49.1 -49.5 -49.4 -48.2 -48.8 -47.3 -47.5 -46.3 -45.9 -46.3 -47.2 -48.1 -50.3 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 58 58 60 67 63 64 54 40 34 40 51 63 66 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 42 44 44 45 48 47 47 49 51 41 30 23 18 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 69 66 60 92 95 123 145 173 191 158 150 95 -9 -6 0 200 MB DIV 40 41 40 37 56 102 108 136 120 40 35 61 34 33 13 4 18 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 4 12 11 19 15 6 1 6 10 2 7 25 22 25 LAND (KM) 576 602 627 656 691 790 925 948 835 733 444 210 -4 19 3 -10 126 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.7 25.2 26.4 28.1 30.1 32.5 35.6 38.9 41.7 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.6 66.1 66.5 66.9 67.5 67.7 68.0 67.5 66.7 66.2 65.9 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 11 14 16 15 12 14 19 17 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 58 54 50 45 33 22 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -7. -14. -22. -32. -40. -46. -51. -55. -56. -56. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 30. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 6. 9. 10. -4. -22. -32. -40. -47. -50. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 8. 4. -1. -7. -11. -30. -48. -62. -69. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.9 65.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.1% 10.2% 8.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 8.9% 6.2% 3.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.1% 5.7% 4.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 17.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 27( 58) 27( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 34( 45) 24( 58) 20( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 104 107 107 106 108 104 99 93 89 70 47 39 32 29 31 18HR AGO 100 99 102 105 105 104 106 102 97 91 87 68 45 37 30 27 29 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 99 98 100 96 91 85 81 62 39 31 24 21 23 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 89 91 87 82 76 72 53 30 22 15 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 82 78 73 67 63 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 84 80 75 69 65 46 23 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 104 95 89 85 87 83 78 72 68 49 26 18 DIS DIS DIS