* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 86 89 91 91 89 84 74 59 46 38 35 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 86 89 91 91 89 84 74 59 46 38 35 33 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 85 85 85 86 86 80 70 61 52 47 44 41 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 6 2 8 9 8 17 17 20 20 23 19 19 22 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 1 -3 -4 0 0 0 1 6 6 7 8 1 9 8 SHEAR DIR 181 188 199 329 350 307 230 265 268 309 25 68 138 197 234 240 306 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.5 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 138 140 134 128 122 117 115 116 116 107 105 105 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 58 56 61 61 61 54 53 50 53 59 59 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 33 35 37 37 36 37 38 39 37 32 28 26 27 28 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 39 35 25 20 15 29 14 -7 -25 -47 -40 -34 -31 -103 -78 200 MB DIV 44 32 29 16 11 18 12 39 -28 -3 -41 -57 -19 26 18 -18 -19 700-850 TADV 7 10 8 5 4 7 5 11 12 7 3 6 0 5 -10 -24 -10 LAND (KM) 2325 2209 2094 1988 1882 1705 1591 1515 1478 1446 1392 1333 1242 1198 1178 1118 1018 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.9 31.0 31.9 32.8 34.2 35.2 36.2 37.0 37.3 37.6 38.1 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.6 39.6 40.0 40.4 41.3 41.7 41.4 40.8 40.9 41.4 41.7 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 14 12 9 8 4 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -45. -50. -52. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. -2. -9. -13. -12. -12. -16. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 9. -1. -16. -28. -37. -40. -42. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.7 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.4% 12.4% 9.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 6.9% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.1% 5.9% 3.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 18.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 11( 22) 12( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 86 89 91 91 89 84 74 59 46 38 35 33 29 25 18HR AGO 75 74 78 82 85 87 87 85 80 70 55 42 34 31 29 25 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 78 80 80 78 73 63 48 35 27 24 22 18 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 70 70 68 63 53 38 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT