* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 61 69 76 83 87 93 96 98 101 109 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 61 69 76 83 87 93 96 98 101 109 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 49 60 70 79 85 88 93 98 106 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 14 12 14 11 4 6 12 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -1 0 2 2 4 -1 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 94 78 73 63 73 67 51 54 37 46 39 23 36 275 284 270 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 152 152 154 154 150 152 152 155 155 159 163 166 166 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 71 76 80 81 81 83 81 76 71 66 62 65 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 13 15 19 23 25 28 29 32 35 41 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 26 29 28 38 41 56 62 66 63 68 52 41 52 67 98 200 MB DIV -1 -11 5 17 25 42 82 115 147 174 158 137 93 20 10 25 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -7 -3 -3 -2 0 3 4 6 -2 1 4 LAND (KM) 1607 1665 1720 1740 1700 1626 1600 1625 1591 1609 1690 1715 1490 1192 928 703 585 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.5 14.1 16.4 19.1 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.1 32.6 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.9 37.3 38.5 39.5 40.6 42.1 44.6 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 12 16 20 23 22 21 22 17 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 26 31 35 29 24 28 37 49 62 40 40 47 40 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 54. 58. 58. 56. 56. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 23. 26. 29. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 25. 36. 44. 51. 58. 62. 68. 71. 73. 76. 84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 32.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.7% 9.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.4% 5.3% 1.1% 0.6% 6.1% 19.2% 49.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 3.3% 62.8% Consensus: 1.6% 11.9% 5.5% 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% 11.9% 37.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 61 69 76 83 87 93 96 98 101 109 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 48 59 67 74 81 85 91 94 96 99 107 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 43 54 62 69 76 80 86 89 91 94 102 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 35 46 54 61 68 72 78 81 83 86 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT