* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 25 30 37 43 48 52 56 59 62 65 68 72 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 25 30 37 43 48 52 56 59 62 65 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 26 29 32 36 40 45 50 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 10 10 8 10 6 10 6 9 10 10 2 2 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 2 2 2 8 4 -1 0 -4 1 0 0 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 31 27 37 33 24 32 18 337 294 233 189 177 166 193 34 359 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.0 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 146 152 154 151 161 159 157 153 155 157 159 163 153 160 168 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 76 75 75 72 69 66 65 65 63 61 63 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 19 18 21 31 49 57 60 71 73 88 95 94 98 97 101 200 MB DIV 10 14 -1 -25 -26 36 72 106 106 142 136 125 99 31 -19 11 14 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -12 -3 0 0 0 5 -1 -1 -6 -8 -9 LAND (KM) 603 660 750 841 958 1200 1494 1813 1997 1866 1666 1379 1115 880 677 496 462 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.5 13.2 14.6 16.3 17.9 19.1 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.4 23.1 24.0 24.9 26.0 28.4 31.3 34.4 37.8 41.4 45.1 48.7 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 17 19 19 18 16 12 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 12 14 21 22 33 39 40 61 49 41 65 56 77 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 49. 54. 58. 59. 58. 58. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 45. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 22.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.8% 4.0% 1.3% 0.8% 3.4% 5.4% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% Consensus: 0.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 19 20 25 30 37 43 48 52 56 59 62 65 68 72 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 25 30 37 43 48 52 56 59 62 65 68 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 22 27 34 40 45 49 53 56 59 62 65 69 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT