* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 80 83 86 87 86 83 77 66 52 42 36 34 31 25 24 V (KT) LAND 75 77 80 83 86 87 86 83 77 66 52 42 36 34 31 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 79 81 82 83 82 80 74 66 59 52 49 46 41 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 7 5 7 8 7 14 17 14 20 18 12 16 23 33 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 -3 2 7 5 7 2 4 8 3 SHEAR DIR 185 177 118 52 346 290 212 259 252 13 54 125 197 233 259 251 252 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.3 25.1 24.7 24.3 22.8 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 135 136 136 132 127 119 117 118 120 115 104 102 101 96 90 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.4 -51.1 -49.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 56 53 55 61 58 52 44 43 44 54 58 62 57 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 37 37 39 39 39 40 38 35 30 27 27 29 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 50 41 39 33 31 26 30 35 29 -4 -48 -71 -56 -24 -7 5 28 200 MB DIV 38 29 23 15 9 3 36 22 7 -37 -62 -1 19 47 27 20 -4 700-850 TADV 9 12 6 4 11 6 10 7 5 0 -1 0 1 10 -20 -35 -43 LAND (KM) 2240 2128 2017 1913 1810 1676 1577 1506 1444 1358 1259 1143 1031 1018 1143 1511 1365 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.4 33.2 34.3 35.3 36.3 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.4 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.7 40.0 40.6 41.1 41.7 41.8 41.4 41.4 42.0 42.7 43.1 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 5 5 3 4 5 7 6 7 14 25 31 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 13 11 10 9 8 3 2 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -46. -51. -53. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -11. -18. -18. -16. -18. -23. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 2. -9. -23. -33. -39. -41. -44. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.6 39.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.5% 11.1% 9.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.9% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 10( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 80 83 86 87 86 83 77 66 52 42 36 34 31 25 24 18HR AGO 75 74 77 80 83 84 83 80 74 63 49 39 33 31 28 22 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 77 78 77 74 68 57 43 33 27 25 22 16 15 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 69 68 65 59 48 34 24 18 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT