* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 59 68 72 75 81 86 88 88 87 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 59 68 72 75 81 86 88 88 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 49 59 67 74 81 86 86 85 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 5 6 6 9 11 11 8 9 1 10 8 13 10 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 3 5 0 -2 -2 -1 1 3 2 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 81 74 64 74 57 57 68 58 58 83 70 329 327 323 289 240 241 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.1 28.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 154 158 167 168 158 155 154 155 159 160 157 140 148 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 62 66 71 76 77 81 80 80 78 74 69 64 60 61 60 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 17 18 19 21 24 25 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 40 38 44 49 58 55 65 65 70 39 11 -10 -15 -1 3 200 MB DIV 0 19 34 30 28 71 102 132 127 124 91 62 42 29 -5 25 44 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -7 -3 0 1 0 5 6 11 13 0 3 9 LAND (KM) 1564 1596 1662 1736 1750 1705 1731 1657 1640 1687 1753 1685 1547 1501 1510 1533 1297 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.6 13.5 14.8 16.6 18.8 21.6 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.0 32.6 33.3 34.2 36.1 38.0 39.5 40.9 42.4 44.1 46.2 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 9 10 9 10 13 16 17 18 16 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 20 23 29 38 32 33 41 49 56 52 27 37 14 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 41. 48. 52. 55. 55. 52. 50. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 23. 34. 43. 47. 50. 56. 61. 63. 63. 62. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 31.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 16.3% 10.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 8.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 6.3% 10.6% 41.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 16.5% Consensus: 1.5% 10.5% 5.4% 2.9% 0.2% 2.7% 8.0% 19.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 59 68 72 75 81 86 88 88 87 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 46 57 66 70 73 79 84 86 86 85 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 42 53 62 66 69 75 80 82 82 81 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 33 44 53 57 60 66 71 73 73 72 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT