* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 23 27 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 51 53 57 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 23 27 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 51 53 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 22 24 26 28 29 30 30 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 11 13 12 12 12 10 12 17 22 17 12 14 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 0 4 7 0 0 0 5 4 4 -5 -7 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 28 30 29 25 22 31 10 324 284 235 206 221 224 262 271 290 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.6 28.7 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 154 154 152 158 165 150 158 158 158 159 151 150 155 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 75 74 74 71 69 66 63 65 63 58 59 56 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 17 20 27 47 51 54 54 39 42 29 22 20 18 38 44 200 MB DIV 1 -11 -27 -21 3 40 77 96 112 86 98 65 19 32 -12 21 27 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -4 -6 -12 -11 1 7 6 20 15 14 6 -1 0 7 LAND (KM) 680 756 858 972 1095 1359 1676 2026 1991 1882 1643 1445 1319 1277 1234 1202 1241 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 13.0 14.2 16.0 18.1 20.1 21.9 23.8 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.4 30.0 33.1 36.4 39.8 43.3 46.7 49.5 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 18 19 19 19 18 14 12 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 13 15 18 18 28 36 34 50 46 30 33 25 29 41 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 41. 47. 51. 54. 54. 52. 51. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 23.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.0% 3.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.8% 3.9% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 0.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 18 19 23 27 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 51 53 57 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 19 23 27 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 51 53 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 21 25 32 37 40 42 44 46 48 49 51 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT