* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 75 76 77 75 72 67 55 45 39 36 32 27 25 24 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 75 76 77 75 72 67 55 45 39 36 32 27 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 70 71 71 74 74 70 65 59 53 50 47 44 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 7 9 9 15 12 6 23 21 14 24 20 23 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 -2 1 6 -2 6 3 0 5 4 2 7 7 2 SHEAR DIR 177 129 41 3 342 230 231 310 306 28 85 150 193 227 241 254 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.5 24.9 24.7 23.5 20.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 134 131 128 121 116 117 119 116 107 103 103 97 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 51 56 57 53 43 41 41 46 53 61 60 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 36 37 36 38 37 37 36 31 27 26 27 28 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 32 28 24 24 38 37 15 -20 -68 -80 -56 -52 -28 -6 5 200 MB DIV 12 17 15 8 13 0 70 -6 -24 -67 -31 16 50 6 23 -31 4 700-850 TADV 8 8 3 6 7 8 13 6 2 -1 -2 -8 1 17 7 -38 -18 LAND (KM) 2089 1976 1863 1784 1705 1610 1515 1455 1375 1276 1146 1058 1052 1157 1387 1727 1139 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.1 33.0 33.6 34.2 35.1 36.2 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.3 40.3 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.9 40.4 40.8 41.3 41.5 41.4 41.2 41.7 42.4 43.2 43.3 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 8 12 18 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 9 8 8 3 1 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. -27. -33. -39. -44. -48. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -10. -17. -20. -18. -18. -22. -25. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -3. -15. -25. -31. -34. -38. -42. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.1 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.8% 9.8% 8.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.2% 4.3% 3.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 6( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 75 76 77 75 72 67 55 45 39 36 32 27 25 24 18HR AGO 70 69 70 73 74 75 73 70 65 53 43 37 34 30 25 23 22 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 70 71 69 66 61 49 39 33 30 26 21 19 18 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 62 60 57 52 40 30 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT