* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 34 44 56 64 71 75 81 86 90 90 95 93 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 34 44 56 64 71 75 81 86 90 90 95 93 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 34 42 49 57 65 71 75 78 82 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 5 10 9 11 7 2 6 11 14 16 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 4 0 0 -1 -2 6 2 -2 -7 -8 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 74 64 76 100 95 70 77 62 89 85 120 331 315 280 279 248 236 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.1 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 156 160 171 162 157 156 155 157 153 155 155 148 147 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 65 70 76 77 80 81 77 78 76 70 64 60 60 60 56 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 14 16 19 21 22 25 27 31 32 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 40 48 50 56 67 63 71 63 54 18 9 -4 8 11 18 200 MB DIV 27 33 32 49 87 108 109 109 121 70 70 28 25 -8 12 28 43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -5 0 0 4 3 8 8 10 8 0 8 12 LAND (KM) 1559 1602 1674 1770 1783 1766 1735 1686 1701 1773 1730 1634 1537 1473 1401 1396 1376 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.5 14.7 16.3 18.4 20.9 23.4 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.1 32.8 33.7 34.7 36.7 38.6 40.2 41.8 43.4 45.3 47.3 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 9 10 10 10 10 12 14 16 15 14 15 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 21 26 33 37 34 38 48 50 50 26 28 29 17 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 25. 34. 42. 48. 52. 55. 56. 53. 51. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. 30. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 24. 36. 44. 51. 55. 61. 66. 70. 70. 75. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 31.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.0% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 6.7% 8.6% 30.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 15.9% Consensus: 0.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 15.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 25 34 44 56 64 71 75 81 86 90 90 95 93 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 33 43 55 63 70 74 80 85 89 89 94 92 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 30 40 52 60 67 71 77 82 86 86 91 89 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT