* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 24 29 35 38 39 38 38 38 40 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 21 24 29 35 38 39 38 38 38 40 41 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 26 24 23 23 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 11 8 15 10 12 15 23 31 30 29 25 23 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 3 5 4 1 6 7 5 1 -3 -3 -7 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 33 35 34 24 16 10 337 289 235 219 226 235 242 247 246 236 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 152 154 155 151 157 159 153 160 155 154 153 150 154 156 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 72 72 71 67 65 63 66 65 58 59 56 54 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 16 24 33 54 69 45 33 16 22 9 23 14 34 38 54 200 MB DIV -15 -28 -11 6 12 59 60 68 89 54 54 23 15 5 9 16 42 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -4 -6 -14 -5 10 13 20 24 6 3 2 3 8 6 LAND (KM) 732 820 921 1044 1178 1485 1822 2111 2052 1831 1611 1484 1375 1275 1155 1101 1120 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.9 15.7 17.9 20.1 22.2 24.2 25.6 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.9 24.8 25.8 27.0 28.3 31.3 34.5 37.9 41.4 44.9 47.9 50.2 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 16 19 20 19 19 15 11 10 10 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 18 21 17 31 32 43 35 24 30 26 24 46 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 1. 5. 14. 24. 32. 40. 45. 48. 50. 51. 49. 48. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -6. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18. 20. 21. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 23.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 21 24 29 35 38 39 38 38 38 40 41 44 47 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 20 23 28 34 37 38 37 37 37 39 40 43 46 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 26 32 35 36 35 35 35 37 38 41 44 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT