* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 78 79 79 79 75 71 63 52 46 42 42 36 32 31 36 V (KT) LAND 75 76 78 79 79 79 75 71 63 52 46 42 42 36 32 31 36 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 77 77 78 76 71 65 59 55 55 55 50 44 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 5 5 14 18 8 12 14 6 16 27 28 29 30 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 5 0 -3 1 4 6 2 6 1 4 4 9 13 SHEAR DIR 133 32 332 342 255 219 258 291 354 46 193 209 220 247 252 299 296 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.3 25.2 24.3 22.9 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 133 129 127 121 118 113 113 117 119 115 107 102 94 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -49.6 -49.8 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 54 59 54 45 37 39 40 44 51 56 48 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 33 29 27 27 30 30 28 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 26 20 22 32 38 27 -3 -40 -62 -81 -59 -42 -15 -7 14 200 MB DIV 17 17 14 20 -9 46 13 2 -49 -71 15 21 74 34 5 5 -12 700-850 TADV 8 4 6 8 6 7 5 1 0 -2 2 3 0 15 6 25 30 LAND (KM) 1970 1874 1778 1716 1655 1566 1524 1455 1415 1350 1245 1157 1096 1221 1531 1633 1284 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.1 33.9 34.4 34.9 36.0 36.8 37.4 37.6 37.9 38.4 39.3 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.0 40.4 40.7 41.0 40.8 40.3 40.6 41.0 41.7 42.8 43.0 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 4 4 6 10 16 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 7 7 3 1 0 1 3 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -11. -18. -26. -33. -40. -45. -51. -55. -56. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -19. -20. -16. -17. -21. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -4. -12. -23. -29. -33. -33. -39. -43. -44. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.3 39.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 489.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.3% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 7.2% 4.8% 1.7% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.2% 5.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 7( 17) 7( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 78 79 79 79 75 71 63 52 46 42 42 36 32 31 36 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 77 77 73 69 61 50 44 40 40 34 30 29 34 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 72 68 64 56 45 39 35 35 29 25 24 29 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 65 61 57 49 38 32 28 28 22 18 17 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT