* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 28 37 47 61 67 73 76 78 81 87 92 89 87 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 28 37 47 61 67 73 76 78 81 87 92 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 43 51 58 64 68 73 79 83 84 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 7 5 11 10 12 13 7 3 6 3 7 12 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 6 4 0 0 -1 -2 5 4 1 1 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 71 71 82 95 72 53 61 65 81 86 3 7 14 247 222 231 219 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.8 27.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 156 160 166 168 158 157 154 157 159 154 147 140 151 138 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 76 77 78 80 78 76 78 73 66 62 60 61 57 53 53 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 13 15 20 21 23 24 25 27 31 35 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 51 54 71 67 70 73 64 34 12 0 -5 15 11 31 200 MB DIV 40 43 44 82 86 98 133 123 155 126 67 -21 18 -1 30 26 31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -7 -5 1 2 3 3 9 6 7 -2 -1 5 10 LAND (KM) 1610 1672 1766 1804 1781 1779 1691 1672 1739 1788 1747 1658 1600 1544 1507 1381 1117 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.2 14.1 15.3 17.3 19.7 22.4 24.8 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.2 32.8 33.7 34.7 35.7 37.9 39.6 41.0 42.5 44.1 45.8 47.7 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 9 10 10 11 9 11 13 15 15 15 16 17 17 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 26 33 38 35 36 43 46 61 36 23 35 14 27 16 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 24. 33. 41. 47. 51. 53. 53. 51. 49. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 12. 16. 17. 18. 19. 22. 28. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 17. 27. 41. 47. 53. 56. 58. 61. 67. 72. 69. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 32.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 15.9% 6.0% 2.4% 1.3% 7.3% 11.0% 35.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 1.8% 36.4% Consensus: 1.1% 8.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 3.1% 4.3% 24.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 28 37 47 61 67 73 76 78 81 87 92 89 87 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 27 36 46 60 66 72 75 77 80 86 91 88 86 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 31 41 55 61 67 70 72 75 81 86 83 81 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT