* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 31 40 48 53 54 51 49 48 46 43 38 31 24 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 31 40 48 53 54 51 49 48 46 43 38 31 24 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 32 33 32 31 31 30 27 23 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 10 10 14 10 13 10 17 24 33 39 50 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -3 4 6 4 0 0 0 1 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 229 202 188 217 195 233 222 226 252 244 222 234 241 244 238 233 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 153 149 146 142 137 134 133 133 131 124 112 106 102 99 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 74 74 72 68 62 55 53 51 48 48 47 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 12 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 29 28 36 31 35 29 18 18 5 -1 -20 -29 -37 -50 200 MB DIV 101 87 86 88 92 49 43 51 67 38 33 14 -6 5 28 3 5 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 5 10 8 5 0 LAND (KM) 2310 2322 2339 2338 2336 2309 2277 2263 2251 2255 2259 2262 2143 2023 1908 1820 1766 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.9 14.1 15.0 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.1 128.0 128.7 129.4 130.5 131.3 132.0 132.4 132.7 133.0 133.6 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 11 8 9 16 24 14 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 9. 19. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. 38. 35. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 28. 33. 34. 31. 29. 28. 26. 23. 18. 11. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 126.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.6% 86.1% 71.7% 66.8% 27.4% 69.9% 58.4% 27.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 7.9% 5.4% 3.0% 0.2% 3.1% 1.6% 0.1% Consensus: 13.0% 31.3% 25.7% 23.3% 9.2% 24.3% 20.0% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##