* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 102 103 101 99 92 86 80 67 45 31 28 25 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 102 103 101 99 92 86 80 67 45 33 30 29 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 100 100 100 96 92 84 73 49 33 31 31 31 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 11 16 16 18 34 35 40 27 27 41 42 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -3 1 7 11 12 2 -1 1 -2 3 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 241 217 209 222 204 206 188 189 183 180 209 220 219 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.9 26.6 24.6 17.9 16.1 17.2 15.2 10.9 11.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 151 152 144 135 125 122 104 75 71 74 71 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.4 -48.7 -48.9 -49.1 -48.3 -48.5 -47.7 -47.0 -46.7 -47.0 -47.6 -46.9 -46.9 -46.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 63 61 63 58 47 48 52 54 59 62 53 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 43 46 47 46 48 48 50 51 46 32 25 22 19 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 80 94 99 100 108 126 136 150 122 147 142 138 134 141 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 70 93 102 96 130 153 104 36 98 62 78 19 33 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 11 8 10 14 8 12 -5 8 -2 -2 13 -8 -99 -147 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 702 754 811 870 939 897 798 658 394 159 0 49 92 74 443 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.6 28.5 30.6 33.3 36.3 39.3 42.3 45.2 47.5 49.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.2 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.2 67.5 66.8 66.5 66.5 66.1 63.9 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 12 14 15 15 15 14 14 17 19 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 42 40 36 27 14 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -23. -33. -45. -53. -59. -63. -62. -58. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -0. 5. 12. 17. 24. 29. 33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. -2. -24. -35. -40. -45. -54. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 1. -1. -8. -14. -20. -33. -55. -69. -72. -75. -77. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.3 66.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 531.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 14.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.2% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/13/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 23( 54) 21( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 16( 29) 1( 29) 0( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 102 103 101 99 92 86 80 67 45 33 30 29 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 101 102 100 98 91 85 79 66 44 32 29 28 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 95 93 86 80 74 61 39 27 24 23 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 86 79 73 67 54 32 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 72 66 60 47 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 81 74 68 62 49 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 102 93 87 83 76 70 64 51 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS