* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 80 81 80 78 73 65 54 45 40 42 42 39 36 32 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 80 81 80 78 73 65 54 45 40 42 42 39 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 79 79 80 78 73 67 60 54 51 52 52 48 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 13 6 13 16 12 10 26 11 9 21 28 27 21 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 5 -2 1 -5 5 -2 3 1 5 3 3 11 11 11 SHEAR DIR 37 334 312 262 237 232 294 286 28 41 223 238 232 251 301 302 274 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.6 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.5 22.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 130 126 124 120 117 114 113 117 118 110 104 100 103 91 86 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 53 58 55 48 38 34 34 35 37 42 46 38 35 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 34 35 37 37 35 33 29 25 25 30 33 31 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 20 19 14 29 38 20 -4 -27 -52 -68 -56 -32 -9 8 65 200 MB DIV 8 18 23 -6 -7 50 30 -35 -61 -73 14 41 69 17 -19 6 7 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 7 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 8 -3 4 23 18 20 LAND (KM) 1879 1798 1718 1674 1630 1564 1524 1487 1444 1350 1230 1146 1145 1252 1454 1727 1325 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.8 34.5 35.0 35.4 36.4 37.0 37.3 37.4 37.9 38.7 39.8 41.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.2 40.5 40.6 40.6 40.2 40.0 40.2 40.8 41.7 42.6 42.5 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 5 5 7 8 10 14 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -47. -52. -56. -57. -60. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -21. -15. -11. -14. -18. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -10. -21. -30. -35. -33. -33. -36. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.1 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 15.6% 11.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 6.8% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 7.5% 5.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 80 81 80 78 73 65 54 45 40 42 42 39 36 32 18HR AGO 75 74 76 76 77 76 74 69 61 50 41 36 38 38 35 32 28 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 72 71 69 64 56 45 36 31 33 33 30 27 23 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 63 58 50 39 30 25 27 27 24 21 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT