* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 36 49 64 74 80 84 88 91 95 98 94 90 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 36 49 64 74 80 84 88 91 95 98 94 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 43 53 63 70 75 79 83 87 85 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 5 7 7 9 8 11 11 6 12 8 10 16 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 7 4 0 -1 -3 -4 1 1 0 0 -4 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 75 76 96 81 71 64 56 95 67 81 40 39 349 283 249 247 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 158 164 170 164 157 156 153 156 154 157 156 152 145 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -49.7 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 77 78 79 79 76 75 76 72 67 65 67 65 62 58 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 14 16 20 21 23 25 27 29 32 35 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 54 60 62 72 65 71 64 55 32 31 14 16 18 21 24 200 MB DIV 34 53 75 92 94 106 146 167 137 101 8 7 -1 14 12 31 51 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -2 0 0 -1 4 1 4 6 2 5 8 13 LAND (KM) 1666 1740 1787 1751 1740 1727 1665 1669 1725 1724 1660 1549 1458 1367 1341 1250 991 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 13.1 14.2 15.7 17.7 20.2 22.8 25.1 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.7 33.4 34.3 35.3 36.4 38.4 40.0 41.5 43.2 45.0 46.8 49.1 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 10 10 12 14 16 15 16 17 19 18 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 30 37 38 33 37 49 48 61 29 27 29 22 21 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 25. 33. 41. 47. 50. 53. 53. 51. 49. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 28. 27. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 29. 44. 54. 60. 64. 68. 71. 75. 78. 74. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 32.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 4.0% 16.8% 37.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 13.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 3.3% 1.8% 23.9% Consensus: 0.9% 7.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 2.4% 6.2% 20.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/13/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 36 49 64 74 80 84 88 91 95 98 94 90 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 34 47 62 72 78 82 86 89 93 96 92 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 30 43 58 68 74 78 82 85 89 92 88 84 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT