* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 39 45 50 50 48 47 46 43 38 33 24 16 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 39 45 50 50 48 47 46 43 38 33 24 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 31 31 31 31 30 26 21 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 5 6 11 10 10 9 13 15 24 32 44 53 63 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -6 -5 -1 -1 6 5 2 0 3 0 0 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 257 246 229 246 241 245 226 257 251 241 226 238 237 240 233 233 236 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 150 148 144 137 135 134 133 132 127 117 109 103 99 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 73 74 72 69 63 59 54 53 51 51 50 52 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 13 13 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 19 17 29 30 32 29 29 22 25 12 10 -16 -20 -49 -51 200 MB DIV 114 100 80 84 60 44 49 54 43 23 12 19 16 30 20 9 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 7 12 9 9 5 LAND (KM) 2383 2409 2416 2404 2389 2347 2332 2329 2325 2292 2229 2134 2012 1902 1809 1756 1752 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.3 12.0 13.4 14.4 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.6 129.3 130.0 130.6 131.5 132.3 132.9 133.2 133.5 134.0 134.8 135.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 6 3 2 2 4 6 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 9 9 11 19 12 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 39. 39. 36. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 19. 25. 30. 30. 28. 27. 26. 23. 18. 13. 4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 127.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.6% 83.4% 67.1% 61.0% 27.9% 61.0% 55.2% 27.4% Bayesian: 2.6% 10.1% 7.3% 2.9% 0.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.4% 31.2% 24.8% 21.3% 9.3% 21.3% 19.1% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##