* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 102 101 97 93 86 82 73 52 37 30 30 39 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 102 101 97 93 86 82 73 52 33 32 29 36 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 99 98 97 91 86 80 59 37 30 33 30 34 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 19 19 18 29 43 41 34 33 39 52 58 69 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -6 -4 8 7 11 4 -5 0 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 211 232 225 224 209 197 192 194 186 201 217 236 239 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.2 27.1 27.3 19.5 14.1 17.6 15.9 13.9 7.4 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 141 138 127 127 130 79 68 74 73 70 65 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -48.6 -48.7 -48.9 -48.8 -48.3 -47.9 -46.9 -46.7 -46.8 -47.4 -47.5 -46.5 -46.1 -46.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 3.1 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 62 63 62 53 40 43 46 54 61 56 52 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 48 47 45 48 48 52 50 36 27 23 20 20 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 99 101 94 105 116 147 153 143 137 129 155 122 129 106 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 114 114 97 75 134 140 32 90 81 57 36 13 6 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 9 18 15 11 10 3 22 1 -1 -1 14 -4 -68 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 763 833 881 959 975 827 757 481 223 60 -129 1 -122 133 424 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.6 29.6 31.9 34.6 38.0 41.4 44.1 46.6 49.4 52.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.4 67.7 67.9 68.1 68.0 67.5 67.0 67.3 67.3 66.5 63.6 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 17 16 13 14 20 18 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 32 23 22 7 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -14. -25. -37. -48. -56. -61. -64. -59. -54. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -2. 5. 13. 19. 28. 36. 41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -8. -10. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. -0. 2. 1. 6. 4. -16. -33. -39. -44. -43. -45. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -27. -48. -63. -70. -70. -61. -54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.0 67.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 20( 53) 14( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 102 101 97 93 86 82 73 52 33 32 29 36 43 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 101 100 96 92 85 81 72 51 32 31 28 35 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 91 87 80 76 67 46 27 26 23 30 37 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 82 75 71 62 41 22 21 18 25 32 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 70 66 57 36 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 78 71 67 58 37 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 102 93 87 83 76 72 63 42 23 22 19 26 33 DIS DIS