* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 80 79 78 74 68 56 47 41 40 38 39 37 34 43 V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 80 79 78 74 68 56 47 41 40 38 39 37 34 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 80 80 79 78 75 70 63 57 54 56 57 54 48 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 7 14 15 12 9 16 18 5 11 19 29 25 23 30 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 3 -3 -1 -1 -1 4 4 0 0 1 2 6 3 3 13 SHEAR DIR 329 312 252 242 223 254 312 336 22 31 235 231 225 272 312 289 269 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.1 25.0 24.9 23.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 123 121 119 116 116 116 118 120 120 121 114 105 105 99 86 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -51.3 -51.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 53 57 57 52 46 41 39 38 42 47 49 33 24 20 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 34 34 36 37 36 34 31 27 25 27 28 31 30 27 33 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 20 16 27 37 29 -4 -26 -40 -64 -57 -38 -20 -123 -67 -26 200 MB DIV 21 3 -6 0 24 26 -7 -15 -86 -31 8 28 38 -28 -30 -51 -7 700-850 TADV 8 6 5 7 5 2 0 0 -1 1 2 8 -9 4 4 -36 -97 LAND (KM) 1793 1722 1652 1622 1593 1559 1571 1587 1564 1481 1381 1292 1262 1299 1424 1582 1668 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.5 35.1 35.6 36.0 36.8 36.8 36.6 36.4 36.4 36.6 37.4 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 40.5 40.7 40.5 40.3 39.7 39.5 39.5 40.2 41.7 43.3 43.6 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 4 3 1 2 4 6 4 5 9 10 13 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -31. -39. -46. -51. -56. -60. -61. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -22. -20. -18. -15. -17. -21. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -24. -33. -39. -40. -42. -41. -43. -46. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 33.8 40.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 6( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 80 80 79 78 74 68 56 47 41 40 38 39 37 34 43 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 77 76 72 66 54 45 39 38 36 37 35 32 41 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 74 70 64 52 43 37 36 34 35 33 30 39 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 68 64 58 46 37 31 30 28 29 27 24 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT