* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 50 63 73 79 84 84 88 92 94 99 95 88 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 50 63 73 79 84 84 88 92 94 99 95 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 53 66 76 83 89 91 94 95 98 91 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 5 11 13 8 3 6 7 8 8 17 35 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 0 1 -1 -4 0 4 2 3 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 88 50 50 70 62 61 82 63 43 359 17 322 294 239 219 222 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 29.0 28.2 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 159 159 157 157 157 158 160 160 155 149 154 142 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 76 75 76 74 67 64 64 66 63 56 54 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 12 13 17 20 20 22 22 25 28 29 34 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 59 61 68 75 77 73 66 34 25 13 0 10 -2 25 60 200 MB DIV 52 77 92 97 87 140 133 146 105 81 7 5 -12 9 19 55 86 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -10 -11 -5 2 3 1 2 9 6 9 0 2 9 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1751 1783 1751 1740 1751 1696 1663 1711 1753 1692 1595 1509 1440 1415 1466 1180 916 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.8 18.8 21.2 23.4 25.6 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.4 35.3 36.4 37.4 39.2 40.8 42.3 44.1 45.9 47.7 49.9 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 10 10 11 12 15 14 14 14 17 18 16 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 38 36 31 33 41 46 57 54 28 30 24 33 18 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 38. 44. 47. 49. 48. 45. 43. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 10. 14. 13. 17. 20. 20. 25. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 25. 38. 48. 54. 60. 59. 63. 67. 69. 74. 70. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 33.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 29.1% 13.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.0% 47.9% 24.9% 14.4% 12.1% 37.5% 48.1% 64.4% Bayesian: 4.2% 60.1% 19.3% 1.5% 1.3% 24.0% 55.5% 88.7% Consensus: 7.0% 45.7% 19.3% 7.9% 4.4% 20.5% 40.5% 51.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 36 41 50 63 73 79 84 84 88 92 94 99 95 88 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 45 58 68 74 79 79 83 87 89 94 90 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 39 52 62 68 73 73 77 81 83 88 84 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 42 52 58 63 63 67 71 73 78 74 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT