* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 46 47 46 45 44 41 39 36 31 28 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 46 47 46 45 44 41 39 36 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 29 30 30 28 26 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 5 8 7 7 8 12 11 17 22 32 37 42 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -2 -6 -3 -2 2 4 4 1 0 0 -1 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 252 274 274 267 255 238 238 277 266 253 241 243 254 249 240 241 244 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.0 25.9 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 151 151 145 142 139 135 132 126 124 117 111 120 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 70 71 70 66 60 55 52 51 48 48 49 50 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 14 13 11 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 10 15 13 26 20 19 10 11 6 1 -6 -6 -12 1 3 200 MB DIV 106 72 85 67 48 55 59 67 36 -2 -9 -11 -22 -3 -4 20 5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 6 2 1 -5 1 LAND (KM) 2479 2527 2534 2528 2511 2420 2316 2242 2202 2141 2060 1935 1798 1677 1578 1475 1355 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.1 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.3 131.1 131.8 132.3 133.0 133.7 134.2 134.5 135.0 135.7 136.8 138.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 3 5 6 6 5 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 13 11 11 13 13 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 38. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 129.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 54.4% 30.1% 21.2% 5.6% 24.6% 29.8% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 19.1% 10.3% 7.1% 1.9% 8.5% 10.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##