* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 89 88 82 75 71 60 41 31 27 29 32 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 89 88 82 75 71 60 38 31 28 35 38 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 87 86 85 83 79 69 47 30 30 33 33 34 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 17 17 19 18 37 39 37 31 32 42 55 59 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -1 3 9 10 8 0 -1 3 0 3 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 206 232 221 198 198 196 193 182 197 207 222 234 248 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.1 23.6 18.7 13.4 17.7 12.7 8.2 10.1 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 140 137 132 128 128 97 76 68 76 71 68 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.6 -48.9 -48.8 -47.9 -48.3 -47.3 -47.1 -46.7 -46.7 -47.5 -47.6 -47.3 -46.9 -45.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 63 63 57 46 38 45 46 55 61 51 51 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 49 46 46 47 47 49 51 46 32 25 22 19 15 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 96 105 112 128 141 148 119 137 145 100 84 91 184 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 117 89 99 120 130 78 87 102 68 57 45 26 -6 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 16 13 14 11 8 4 1 12 12 0 -74 -43 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 835 899 972 950 861 763 628 319 163 -21 -25 -20 243 653 915 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.9 28.8 29.9 30.9 33.3 36.4 39.8 42.7 45.1 47.6 50.5 53.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 67.8 68.0 68.2 68.4 67.9 67.4 67.1 67.5 67.3 65.4 60.4 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 14 16 16 13 13 18 26 24 15 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 29 23 21 11 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -22. -32. -40. -48. -51. -49. -46. -42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -2. 5. 13. 19. 28. 36. 41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -0. 1. -0. 1. 4. -3. -24. -36. -43. -48. -53. -53. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -19. -30. -49. -59. -63. -61. -58. -50. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.9 67.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.2% 9.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.1% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 8( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 89 89 88 82 75 71 60 38 31 28 35 38 46 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 88 87 81 74 70 59 37 30 27 34 37 45 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 85 79 72 68 57 35 28 25 32 35 43 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 73 66 62 51 29 22 19 26 29 37 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 58 54 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 67 60 56 45 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 89 80 74 70 63 59 48 26 19 16 23 26 34 DIS DIS