* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 80 80 76 72 63 53 45 41 43 39 37 31 23 28 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 80 80 76 72 63 53 45 41 43 39 37 31 23 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 79 79 79 77 72 66 59 54 53 55 54 49 41 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 10 10 12 11 11 16 17 6 4 17 28 22 23 24 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 0 1 4 -1 4 2 0 -1 4 1 4 10 9 9 5 SHEAR DIR 324 247 225 218 229 276 288 350 24 2 136 241 237 295 345 305 269 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.6 27.1 27.1 26.8 25.6 24.8 24.5 22.6 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 121 120 119 115 116 119 118 122 122 121 110 104 103 93 85 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.5 -51.2 -49.4 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 55 56 53 48 41 39 37 42 50 52 45 30 22 22 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 33 34 37 38 37 36 32 29 27 26 29 30 29 25 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 22 14 14 23 19 24 7 -19 -45 -53 -69 -64 -28 -26 -69 -22 -48 200 MB DIV 2 -11 9 19 54 -9 -32 -82 -45 -5 6 49 0 -24 -23 -40 -33 700-850 TADV 10 4 3 4 7 1 0 0 0 4 9 0 1 16 16 -15 -59 LAND (KM) 1722 1668 1616 1600 1587 1554 1585 1593 1537 1497 1452 1360 1249 1301 1500 1753 1396 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.4 37.0 36.7 36.4 36.2 36.0 36.1 37.1 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 40.6 40.7 40.2 39.8 39.5 39.4 39.7 41.0 42.1 42.8 42.8 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 4 1 2 4 5 3 3 7 10 12 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -24. -32. -40. -46. -51. -56. -60. -61. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -17. -17. -18. -25. -34. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 0. -4. -8. -17. -27. -35. -39. -37. -41. -43. -49. -57. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.4 40.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 5( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 79 80 80 76 72 63 53 45 41 43 39 37 31 23 28 18HR AGO 80 79 78 79 79 75 71 62 52 44 40 42 38 36 30 22 27 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 77 73 69 60 50 42 38 40 36 34 28 20 25 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 66 62 53 43 35 31 33 29 27 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT