* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 43 53 67 76 83 89 93 94 98 103 102 99 94 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 43 53 67 76 83 89 93 94 98 103 102 99 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 45 58 69 79 86 94 98 99 101 97 90 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 8 6 6 12 8 5 4 7 6 8 6 19 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 1 0 0 0 -1 4 1 -1 2 -4 0 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 86 85 81 83 93 89 99 76 111 107 37 314 316 274 209 220 213 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 27.8 27.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 159 159 157 159 157 160 157 160 155 155 153 149 135 134 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -49.5 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 76 73 73 73 67 64 64 65 63 58 52 57 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 16 21 22 23 26 28 29 32 35 36 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 54 62 61 72 74 74 80 63 49 25 24 11 11 3 12 22 31 200 MB DIV 66 92 100 94 100 116 138 111 57 -12 12 -16 -12 2 48 70 90 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 0 3 5 2 8 5 5 5 2 2 2 9 6 LAND (KM) 1781 1758 1746 1764 1743 1671 1683 1722 1671 1572 1443 1353 1300 1307 1367 1126 961 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.5 16.1 17.9 20.1 22.2 24.3 26.2 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.1 36.2 37.3 38.3 40.2 41.8 43.5 45.5 47.5 49.8 52.4 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 37 37 31 30 38 49 51 57 38 27 27 28 28 13 14 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 31. 37. 42. 45. 47. 47. 44. 41. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 11. 13. 17. 20. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 28. 42. 51. 58. 64. 68. 69. 73. 78. 77. 74. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 34.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 33.9% 16.7% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 33.1% 14.0% 6.3% 4.1% 21.9% 31.3% 41.8% Bayesian: 2.4% 45.6% 9.8% 1.0% 0.6% 18.3% 21.6% 79.2% Consensus: 4.4% 37.6% 13.5% 5.1% 1.6% 13.4% 23.9% 40.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 38 43 53 67 76 83 89 93 94 98 103 102 99 94 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 39 49 63 72 79 85 89 90 94 99 98 95 90 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 42 56 65 72 78 82 83 87 92 91 88 83 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 44 53 60 66 70 71 75 80 79 76 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT