* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 40 45 46 43 41 37 32 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 40 45 46 43 41 37 32 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 27 28 28 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 10 10 8 11 11 13 14 23 35 47 58 65 65 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -4 -2 1 1 3 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 276 279 277 245 257 247 263 268 272 249 241 243 244 235 236 241 238 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.0 24.8 24.7 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 152 151 150 145 143 138 132 125 122 110 110 103 101 101 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 74 72 71 66 58 54 51 50 50 48 50 48 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 15 14 12 11 9 7 6 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 9 6 12 21 20 20 16 18 4 1 -23 -23 -62 -72 -82 200 MB DIV 72 85 78 45 54 72 62 55 50 8 -3 -3 16 23 1 -15 0 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 6 8 15 13 8 2 -5 LAND (KM) 2518 2552 2546 2527 2503 2385 2271 2197 2123 2045 1936 1799 1667 1579 1537 1522 1529 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.5 14.4 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.8 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 131.0 131.6 132.1 132.5 133.3 134.1 134.6 135.2 135.8 136.7 137.8 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 8 8 6 5 3 4 4 6 8 9 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 12 11 11 13 13 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 17. 24. 30. 33. 36. 38. 38. 37. 34. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -22. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 26. 23. 21. 17. 12. 6. -1. -10. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 130.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 35.9% 14.1% 9.4% 3.5% 16.8% 33.4% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 12.5% 4.9% 3.2% 1.2% 5.7% 11.2% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##